Concentration: Disaster Medicine and Response
Project Mentor: Selim Suner, MD
Graduation Year: MD 2011
Risk of aerosolized dissemination of CDC Category A agents and H1N1 in New England based on seasonal variations in meterologic factors
During the course of the past three years, I conducted a literature review on the physical properties of CDC Category A agents (smallpox, hemorrhagic fever viruses, tularemia, plague, anthrax, and botulism). Utilizing a variety of resources, including books, academic journals, articles, and primary references, I collected data on the relative humidity, temperature, and UV radiation sensitivities for each Category A agent. Subsequently, I used the seasonal meterologic data for Providence, RI to analyze the collected physical properties data. Subsequently, the times at which the optimal ranges of meterologic conditions for each pathogen occur were determined by synthesizing data on pathogen susceptibilities with meterologic data. The subsequent phase of my project focused on determining the seasonal variations of the potential impact of an aerosolized Francisella tularensis attack in Rhode Island. For this stage of the project, I calculated the inactivation coefficients for F. tularensis at different combinations of meterologic factors. This information can be used to extrapolate the physical and biological decay of F. tularensis at different meterologic conditions that represent typical climates of New England. The extrapolated data can be synthesized with data on the population density of Providence, RI and median lethal and infectious doses (LD50 and ID50) to estimate morbidity and mortality rates of a F. tularensis attack.
This paper characterizes the seasonal risks of aerosolized dissemination of the H1N1 influenza virus and CDC Category A agents in New England based on seasonal…